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  • Canadian Fin. Min. To Host Pre-Budget Town Hall Meeting in Whitby Tomorrow Posted:07/01/2009 16:57 by NeedToKnowNews

    The finance minister of Canada, Jim Flaherty will host a pre-budget town hall meeting in Whitby tomorrow at 7:30pm at the Westminster United Church.

  • CBO: Why This Recession Won't End With a Rapid Rebound Posted:07/01/2009 16:48 by NeedToKnowNews

    The CBO says that rapid rebounds typically follow sharp contractions, but the 2010 recovery will be slow for several reasons: * Financial institutions need to recover from loan defaults, so credit will stay tight for several years * Excess supply of vacant homes will suppress housing correction * Consumption will stay muted as households adjust to large wealth declines * Foreign nations won't offset falling domestic demand

  • DOE Crude Inventories Up 6.682mln vs. 549k Build Prior Posted:07/01/2009 16:12 by NeedToKnowNews

    Unleaded up 3.334mln vs. 808k build prior Distillates up 1.79mln vs. 694k build prior Refinery use up 2.11% vs. -2.22% prior

  • Reminder: DOE Inventories Will Be Released at 10:30am EST Posted:07/01/2009 16:04 by NeedToKnowNews

    The EIA has returned to their original 10:30am release time after seven months of releasing the data at 10:35.

  • Preview: DOE Inventories Posted:07/01/2009 16:03 by NeedToKnowNews

    Crude expected up 800k vs. up 549k prior Unleaded expected up 1mln vs. up 808k prior Distillates expected up 1.1mln vs. up 694k prior Refinery Usage: flat vs. down 2.22% prior

  • Natural Gas Update Posted:07/01/2009 15:36 by NeedToKnowNews

    Natural Gas sold off overnight and plunged through support at the $6 handle during premarket trading. Buyers tried to send it higher right before the open, but the $6 handle (now resistance) held, and Natural Gas continued to decline in the first half hour of floor trade. Currently, Natural Gas is down 0.3% at 5.903.

  • USD taking a beating on rate differentials, sprectre of $1trln deficit Posted:07/01/2009 15:10 by NeedToKnowNews

    EUR/USD gains continue today behind President elect Obama's admission the U.S. would likely suffer under a $1trln deficit for a few years.  Yesterday's reversal higher is seeing some follow-thru buying on the heels of a significantly worse than expected ADP employment report and the spectre of Non-Farm Payrolls losse that could easily top 600k.  CABLE is also well bid over the 1.50 handle with a move back over 1.51 possible ahead of the London close.  Losses against the JPY continue as well with a retest of figure 90 likely on even a bad Initial Claims number tomorrow.

  • Gold in 2nd week of 200d mvg avg challenge; pivotal Gold trend developing Posted:07/01/2009 15:03 by NeedToKnowNews

    February Gold has repeatedly challenged the 200 day moving average over the past 8 days.  On 2 of those 8 days the entire day's range was above the 200d moving average but in both instances there was not a strong close above the average.  On 12/29 Gold sent a strong sell signal but the market did not follow thru and the FEB contract has kept withing striking distance of the 200 day moving average and is now in a position, with short and medium term moving averages below price, to move into a strong bullish rally. Volume is building and as the greenback takes a beating...gold should rally over and extend well beyond the 200 day moving average.  NB, FEB gold is also trading in and around the 50% retracement of the $1045 to $688 sell-off.

  • Crude Update Posted:07/01/2009 14:58 by NeedToKnowNews

    Crude rallied into the open, but could not break through resistance at 48.50. Crude is currently down 0.9% at 48.13 with support down at the intraday low of 47.61.

  • Alcoa Takes Action To Address Economic Slump Posted:07/01/2009 14:56 by NeedToKnowNews

    The Aluminum producer has decided to reduce 13% (13,500 jobs) of its global work force by the end of this year. Additional 1,700 contractor positions will also be cut.  It will freeze salaries and hiring. The company also plans on lowering total output by 18% annually and reducing 2009 capital expenditures by 50%.

  • TSY 3yr Auction Preview Posted:07/01/2009 14:55 by NeedToKnowNews

    The when-issued 3-year note is trading in the 1.18% area. That's up 6bps versus yesterday and off a low of 0.963% from Monday. The cheapening of the issue should help elicit some demand as dip buyers have been seen in recent action. The notes are also relatively cheap on the curve. The December 3-year note auction was well received with a 2.15 bid cover and a 35.3% indirect bid. It will be interesting to see how much more appetite investors, especially foreign investors, will have for Treasuries as the government will be cramming paper down our throats with some sort of coupon auction almost weekly for the rest of the year, and likely through 2010. Note the Treasury is also selling $35bln in 70-day cash management bills at 11:30 ahead of the 3yr auction at 1:00pm.

  • US Challenger 2008 Planned Job Cuts 1.2mln, 5-yr High Posted:07/01/2009 14:54 by NeedToKnowNews

    The figure is up 60% from 2007.

  • FX Summary Posted:19/12/2008 21:55 by NeedToKnowNews

    Yet another volatile and choppy N.Y. session saw the dollar move broadly higher, though the zigs and zags in between kept adrenalin pumping through most of the session. There was no economic data on tap, but the automaker bailout announcement buoyed stocks through the morning session. and appeared to have helped the greenback overall. EUR/USD shed the remainder of the post FOMC gains, while USD/JPY was supported on the back of the BoJ rate cut, intervention concerns, and an improved risk backdrop. Cable meanwhile, opened around 1.5000, though eased through the day, posting 1.4810 lows into the close. The dollar bloc took a softer tone, on the commodity backdrop, as USD/CAD moved higher through the session after dipping on the back of firmer Canadian CPI data.

  • Equities Close Posted:19/12/2008 21:51 by NeedToKnowNews

    Equities finished mixed with the Dow down 0.3% to 8579, the S&P gaining 0.3% to 888 and Nasdaq rising 0.8% to 1564. The S&P500 opened higher as the market digested the auto bailout news and it rallied above the 900 handle. However, it could not breach yesterday’s high of 911 and proceeded to give back most of its gains as the day wore on. For the week, the S&P gained 0.8%. Seven out of ten sectors in the S&P500 finished positive with Energy stocks gaining 2.5%. Ford rose 4% and GM jumped 23%. There are no economic releases or FED speakers on Monday.

  • TALF footnote - Fed can make changes to facility Posted:19/12/2008 21:13 by NeedToKnowNews

    The Federal Reserve reserves the right to review and make adjustments to these terms and conditions – including size of program, pricing, loan maturity, and asset and borrower eligibility requirements – consistent with the policy objectives of the TALF

  • Feb Crude Up 1% to 42.36 Posted:19/12/2008 21:02 by NeedToKnowNews

    Crude for February delivery traded lower overnight but was boosted by the auto bailout news. It peaked at 43.25 before giving back its gains and spent most of the trading session in positive territory. For the week, Feb Crude fell almost 14%. January Crude, expiring today, plunged 6.5% to 33.87. It was extremely volatile at the end of the day with a $5 range in the last 5 minutes.

  • A Look Ahead: Final Q3 GDP Posted:19/12/2008 20:32 by NeedToKnowNews

    The final revision to Q3 GDP, released next Tuesday, is widely expected to be left unchanged at -0.5%. Analysts expecting some sort of revision to the Q3 data are generally expecting a modest downward adjustment to between -0.6% and -0.8%. Next weeks Q3 GDP report is likely to have a  muted impact on markets given the shift in focus to Q4 GDP - which will more fully encompass the financial market meltdown. Q3 Personal Consumption is expected to be left unrevised at -3.7% and Core PCE is expected to be unrevised at 2.6%.

  • A Look Ahead: November Durable Goods Posted:19/12/2008 20:28 by NeedToKnowNews

    The November Durable Goods data, released next Wednesday, are expected to reveal a 3% decline both Durables and Durables ex-Transport orders. This would be a considerable improvement from the prior month’s data which revealed a 6.9% drop in Durables and a 5.4% decline in Durables ex-Transports. Downside risks to the data are considerable, and are reflected in the variability of analyst estimates for the November Durable Goods report. A minority of analysts are anticipating a modest increase over the month; while on the low end some analysts are anticipating a drop of anywhere from 5% to 8%.

  • Equities selling off after Obama's "strengthen unions" comment Posted:19/12/2008 20:01 by NeedToKnowNews

    Dow futures fell 30 points as Obama spoke of the new Labor Secretary.

  • Pelosi: WH Plan Singles Out, Disadvantages Workers From the Start Posted:19/12/2008 19:33 by NeedToKnowNews

    The House speaker said it's essential the automakers' restructuring proceeds in "a fair and equitable manner, that the necessary sacrifice be mutual, and all laws governing fuel efficiency, emissions and improvements in automotive technology be preserved."

  • Gold Closes Down 2.7% to 837.40 Posted:19/12/2008 19:24 by NeedToKnowNews

    Gold sold off heavily in premarket trading but found support just below its 9-day moving average of 830.80. Gold would rally after the open to pare its losses, but could trade no higher than 842.50. For the week, Gold gained 2.1%.

  • FX Update- EUR/USD Posted:19/12/2008 18:55 by NeedToKnowNews

    USD continues to maintain a solid bid tone about an hour into the afternoon session with the USD Index up a hefty 2.5% to 81.459. Today’s surge in the USD Index appears to reflect and upward trend reversal for USD, as the USD Index remains near session highs ahead of what should be a slow rest of the afternoon. EUR/USD, down 2.75% to 1.3848, continues to face selling pressure this afternoon and is down nearly 6% from yesterday’s peak at the 200-Day MA (1.4701). EUR/JPY, down 2.4% to 124.36, has experienced a similar path to EUR/USD over the past few sessions as yesterday’s actions taken by the ECB have deteriorated EUR.

  • Copper Closes Up 2.2% to 132.70 Posted:19/12/2008 18:45 by NeedToKnowNews

    Copper hovered around yesterday’s close of 130.15 during premarket trading, but caught a bid as the floor session opened. Copper moved firmly into positive territory but twice bounced off resistance at 134 before paring its gains into the close. For the week, Copper lost 7%.

  • FX Update- USD Posted:19/12/2008 17:57 by NeedToKnowNews

    Given the speed with which EUR/USD rallied earlier in the week, we shouldn't be too surprised to see those gains evaporate as quickly. The pairing is down around 160 points from the N.Y. open, and over 850 points from Thursday's 1.4719 peak. Under normal market conditions, price action would have likely been limited to less than half of this week's range, though with liquidity being what it was, the market appears to have overshot on the upside, though it remains to be seen where EUR/USD bottoms for now.

  • 940 Employees Laid-off In Potash Saskatchewan Posted:19/12/2008 17:34 by NeedToKnowNews

    The Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan issued temporary layoff notices to 940 employees. The company operates 6 potash mines and plans on cutting production by 2mln tonnes (approximately 20%) starting next month. Company's spokesman Bill Johnson says the layoff notices are for the eight-week period beginning Jan. 18. The layoffs are at the company´s three largest mines in Rocanville, Lanigan and Allan.

  • Canadian Equities Update Posted:19/12/2008 17:26 by NeedToKnowNews

    The S&P/TSX is down 0.04% led by Materials (down 4.88%).  Energy plunged 4.86% and IT fell 3.29%.  Health Care is down 2.95% and Consumer Staples dropped 0.75%.  Industrials is 0.24% lower and Utilities rose 2.67%.  Financials is up 0.58%

  • Wagoner: Not Much Negotiation w/ White House on Bailout Plan This Week Posted:19/12/2008 17:09 by NeedToKnowNews

    "We were presented with the proposal and we were asked" if there were any legal issues, but there was minimal negoation, Wagoner said.

  • Fixed Income Update Posted:19/12/2008 16:26 by NeedToKnowNews

    Bonds have pared some of the losses made when the US announced it will rescue Chrysler and GM with TARP funds. The 30yr is down 18 ticks at 140-26 and the 10yr is off 7 at 127-24. The 5yr has shed 11 ticks and the 2yr is down 2. Short-end yields have barely moved, with the 4wk still flat at 0.04% and the 6-month up 1bp at 0.15%. The 3-month is still up 5bps to 0% and the 1yr is down 2 at 0.38%.

  • FX Update- CHF Posted:19/12/2008 16:26 by NeedToKnowNews

    EUR/CHF retraced earlier gains to trade back in to 1.5400 ahead of the London close. The cross was unable to benefit from the positive Wall Street open and instead took its guide from movement in the dollar legs. USD/CHF rejected earlier highs of 1.1120 to trade back in to 1.1050, where support was noted, while EUR/USD traded underneath 1.3900 before it steadied around 1.3900. The CHF has gained at the expense of the dollar legs, but there were very limited direct swissy flows, with a number of the crosses today being driven by cross currents in other pairs as liquidity dwindles in to the Xmas holidays.

  • Canadian Equities Update Posted:19/12/2008 16:15 by NeedToKnowNews

    The S&P/TSX is up 0.46% this morning led by Health Care (up 1.03%). Materials is down 3.10% and Telecommunications dropped 1.11%. Energy fell 0.79% and Financials rose 0.04%. Industrials and Utilities are down 1.07% and 0.56% respectively.

  • FX Update- AUD Posted:19/12/2008 16:05 by NeedToKnowNews

    AUD/USD turned back in to 0.6870 after it found at 0.6800. European names were noted as buyers at the lows, perhaps taking some profits off the table ahead of the London close after it traded from levels above the 0.6900 area in the European morning. Sellers of Aussie have included real money names and proprietary accounts that are looking for further near-term weakness amid weak domestic fundamentals and a bearish technical picture. However, AUD/USD is likely to favor its broad trading range of late unless 0.6500 and 0.7000 gives way in the very near-term, leaving dollar movement/commodity markets to drive short term volatility.

  • FX Update- EUR/USD Posted:19/12/2008 15:41 by NeedToKnowNews

    After several earlier attempts. EUR/USD managed to break under the 1.3900 mark, on its way to 1.3875 lows. Sell stops were reportedly triggered, though rumored Asian bids quickly stepped in. Price action largely remains order driven, and directional positions today will likely result in pain.

  • Successful ABCP Deal Will Protect Financial Stability Posted:19/12/2008 15:34 by NeedToKnowNews

    Canadian Governments agreed to support restructuring of non-bank sponsored ABCP. “We expect that this will allow the investors and asset providers to achieve a stable and effective restructuring agreement,' said Fin.Min. Jim Flaherty in a release by the Department Of Finance. “A successful restructuring agreement will protect financial stability and the health of Canada’s financial markets,” added the minister.

  • FX Update- Cable Posted:19/12/2008 15:21 by NeedToKnowNews

    Cable is marking time ahead of 1.4922 lows, with little ambition ahead of the weekend. The dollar maintains a firmer tone ahead of the Wall Street open. However, the dollar could potentially give back some of its gains, with Wall Street expected to open on a firmer footing after the White House confirmed a USD 17.4 bln bridge loan to U.S. automakers. Meanwhile, EUR/GBP has also stabilized ahead of its 0.9285 low and is currently trading around the 0.9325 area. From here, movement in to the London close will be driven by one off order flows.

  • Feb Crude Reverses Losses, Up 1.3% to 42.20 Posted:19/12/2008 15:18 by NeedToKnowNews

    Jan Crude, expiring today, is down 0.8% to 35.92

  • ECB: Guarantees on Bank Debt Longer Than 1 Year Based on CDS Spreads Posted:19/12/2008 14:52 by NeedToKnowNews

    A 50bp fee should be added to such guarantees, the ECB said.

  • Bonds Lower as Details of Auto Bailout Emerge Posted:19/12/2008 14:43 by NeedToKnowNews

    The 30yr is now down 24 ticks at 140-20, and the 10yr is down 17 at 127-14. The 5yr is down 15 at 119-18.

  • FX Update- USD/CAD Posted:19/12/2008 14:42 by NeedToKnowNews

    USD/CAD fell from 1.2240 to 1.2120 after the automaker bailout news, which is seen as a near term positive for the Canadian auto manufacturing sector as well as the U.S. industry. It is still far from a certain resolution however, given the bridge loans may be renegotiated by the incoming Obama administration. Dealers said hardly more than "vapor" traded in terms of USD/CAD volume on the way down, and indeed the pairing has quickly moved back over 1.2200 in neck breaking price action.

  • Government Will Have First Claim Ahead of Other GM, Chrylser Debtholders Posted:19/12/2008 14:38 by NeedToKnowNews

    This had been a highly contentious issue during negotiations. Many parties believed such a provision would set a bad precedent and limit opportunities for struggling firms to receive private capital injections. In the future, private sources of funding will be reluctant to assist floundering firms because they know their claims would be junior to government loans if a bailout occurs.

  • FX Update- USD/JPY Posted:19/12/2008 14:35 by NeedToKnowNews

    USD/JPY has firmed on the back of the auto maker bailout news, where TARP funds will be used to provide funding to Detroit. The pairing has moved over 89.60, as the U.S. equity backdrop looks brighter following the car maker news. From here, overnight highs of 89.84 will be the next upside target, followed by Thursday's N.Y. high of 90.02.

  • FX Update- CHF Posted:19/12/2008 14:30 by NeedToKnowNews

    EUR/CHF was boosted by USD/CHF demand, leaving the cross close to its European morning peak of 1.5476. EUR/CHF posted modest gains since early on in the N.Y. session, rallying out of the 1.5385 region. Meanwhile, USD/CHF has traded as high as 1.1120 as dollar buying momentum continues in thin N.Y. trade. Momentum is with the dollar upside and this could see EUR/CHF move back towards the 1.5500 area despite bearish technical studies. Weaker equity markets only had a small impact on the swissy, with price action dominated by dollar movement, which should continue to influence in to the weekend.

  • FX Update- USD/CAD Posted:19/12/2008 14:00 by NeedToKnowNews

    USD/CAD ultimately eased lower after the firmer CPI data, slipping from around 1.2300 to 1.2220 lows before rebounding back to current 1.2270 levels. A lack of liquidity remains an issue for the market, and wide ranges can be expected to continue. The uptick in core inflation is generally a CAD positive, though order flow, equities, and perhaps the commodity markets will likely remain the driving factors.

  • FX Update- AUD Posted:19/12/2008 13:53 by NeedToKnowNews

    AUD/USD recorded session lows of 0.6800, with a broadly firmer dollar tone influencing price action in early N.Y. trade. The pick up in dollar buying momentum also added further pressure on commodities, with gold losses accelerating to $831.10 lows. Yesterday's Aussie slide encouraged further selling pressure today, with technical studies turning bearish after the outside day reversal. Bid interest at 0.6800 and in to 0.6780 area are currently supporting, but further dollar buying could see a quick run on the 10-day moving average at 0.6755.

  • Treasuries Lower Ahead of NY Open Posted:19/12/2008 13:53 by NeedToKnowNews

    Bonds have snapped their week-long winning streak and are lower across the board, with the 30yr down 21 ticks at 140-23 and the 10yr off 16 at 127-15. The 5yr has shed 10 ticks and the 2yr is down 3. Yields are mixed on the short end. The 4wk is flat at 0.04% and the 6-month is unchanged at 0.14%, but the 3-month is up 5bps to 0% and the 1yr is down 1 at 0.39%.

  • ECB, BOJ, BOE, SNB Release Q1 Calendar of Dollar Auctions Posted:19/12/2008 13:46 by NeedToKnowNews

    The FED released a calendar of Q1's auctions of dollar liquidity. Click to see it: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20081219a.htm

  • RIM Revenue Up 7.9% in Q3 Posted:19/12/2008 13:44 by NeedToKnowNews

    Research In Motion released its Q3 results yesterday reporting a 7.9% increase from the previous quarter. Revenue was up to C$2.78bln in Q3 2009 from C$2.58bln previously. Net income for the quarter was $396.3mln ($0.69/share diluted), compared with net income of $495.5 million ($0.86/share diluted), in the prior quarter and net income of $370.5 million ($0.65/share diluted), in the same quarter of 2007. "We are pleased to report record revenue results for the third quarter and we have entered the fourth quarter with strong momentum despite the challenging general economic conditions. In fact we have enjoyed our best ever start to the holiday buying season over the past few weeks," said Jim Balsillie, Co-CEO at RIM.

  • Opening Comments Posted:19/12/2008 13:32 by NeedToKnowNews

    European and Asian equities are down sharply on recession concerns. US equities are set to open lower today with Dow futures down three quarters of a percent. S&Ps and Nasdaq futures are both down one percent. President Bush raised the notion of an ‘orderly bankruptcy’ yesterday at the American Enterprise Institute and TSY Secretary Paulson appeared to support that stance in comments last night. Bonds are down after a week of gains. The thirty year is down about ½ a point to 140-28. The ten year is down nine ticks to 127-23. The five and two year are also down, albeit less than 0.1%. The dollar index is up almost two percent. EUR/USD is down about 250 pips to just below 1.4 while Cable is down three tenths of a percent. The USD/JPY continues trading just below 90. USD/CAD is up one and a half percent. Crude continues falling and is down $2 to $34.15. Gold is taking a beating, falling about $26 to $834. There are no economic releases or FED speakers today.

  • Euro Stock Indices Weak Posted:19/12/2008 13:00 by NeedToKnowNews

    Footsie -3%, CAC -2.00%, DAX -1.97%

  • Energy Update: Oil Falls to $33.44 Posted:19/12/2008 12:42 by NeedToKnowNews

    January NYMEX crude fell to $33.44 lows, down $2.78/bbl in electronic trade. The sharp losses have been attributed to activity ahead of the January contract's expiry at the close later today. February crude, which will take over as front-month on Monday, is actually trading 2 cents higher on the session, st $41.69/bbl. Expect wild price swings in the January contract though the session.

  • Canadian November CPI Continues to Decline Posted:19/12/2008 12:39 by NeedToKnowNews

    Headline CPI M-o-M: -0.3% Headline CPI Y-o-Y: 2.0% Ex Food and Energy M-o-M: 0.6% Core CPI M-o-M: 0.7% Core CPI Y-o-Y: 2.4% Headline Consumer Prices in Canada continued to slide further, falling 0.3% M-o-M in November after a 1% decline in October, less than the consensus estimates of 0.8% drop. November's slowdown in prices was mainly due to falling gasoline prices, which plunged 14.4% below November '07 levels. The main upward contributors were Purchase and Leasing of Passenger Vehicles (up 7.2%) and Fresh Vegetables (up 20%). The last time food costs accelerated at that pace was in November 1986. Excluding food, CPI advanced only 0.9% according to Statistics Canada. The main downward contributors were Gasoline (down 21.4%), Fuel Oil and Other Fuels (down 13.1%) and Traveller Accommodation (down 7.8%). Core CPI jumped to 2.4% y-o-y following a 1.7% rise in October. It was up 0.7% M-o-M after declining 0.2% in October. Y-o-Y Headline was up 2% after a 2.6% increase in October. Core CPI was up 2.4% Y-o-Y. The current declines in Inflation are still within the BOC's forecast as laid out in the last Monetary Policy Report which stated that "Consensus Economics' forecast for total CPI inflation in 2009 was 2.1 per cent,and their forecasts of inflation over the longer term have remained close to 2 per cent." Declining inflationary pressures, may encourage the BOC to hold the overnight rate in January, especially with a stimulus package of 20-30bln expected in the Jan 27 budget.

  • European Midday Update: Shares Fade on Recession Concerns Posted:19/12/2008 12:37 by NeedToKnowNews

    Shares headed south in Europe in morning trade on continued growth concerns, and the slide in oil prices hurt energy shares. The FTSEurofirst 300 shed 1.5%. The commodity-laden FTSE 100 lead the charge downward with a decline of 2.7%. The DAX fell 1.2%. The CAC 40 dropped 1.8%. German producer prices fell 1.5% m/m and in-line with estimates, suggesting that Europe's largest economy is being hit with either disinflation or deflation depending on one's view. Merrill Lynch cut its earnings expectations for European banks by 15% for next year and 25% in 2010. German media reports say Berlin is considering an additional economic stimulus package. The yen tumbled following the BOJ's announcement that it was cutting its main interest rate to 0.1%. EUR/JPY plunged 2.2%. USD/JPY was off 0.5%. GBP/JPY fell 0.6%. The dollar muscled up against European currencies. EUR/USD fell 1.7%. Cable slipped 0.1%. The Swissy jumped 1.6%. Bonds were little changed. The 10yr Bund future fell 4 ticks to 124.50. The 10yr Bund yield was up 1bp to 2.98%. The 2yr Schatz fell 4bps to 1.89%. The 10yr Gilt was up 1bp to 3.19%. The 2yr was flat at 1.27%. The 10yr JGB dropped 6bps to 1.24% after the BOJ said it would buy back more government bonds every month. The US T-note added 1bp to 2.07%. Oil was mixed after the Saudi oil minister said $75/bbl was a price that would help promote stability and dependability in global markets. WTI dropped 6 cents to $41.61 after falling below $36/bbl overnight. Brent rose 25 cents to $43.61.

  • Preview: Canadian November CPI Posted:19/12/2008 12:25 by NeedToKnowNews

    November CPI data will be released today morning at 7:00 by Statistics Canada. Headline CPI is expected to fall 0.8% following a 1% drop in October. The y-o-y pace is expected to ease to 1.5% in November after reaching 2.6% the previous month. Core CPI is expected to slow to a 1.5% y-o-y pace following 1.7% in October. Gasoline prices plummeted 17% in November and are the main factor in the forecasted drop. Car prices for the model year 2009 should take effect in November and would normally provide a lift in the monthly calculation, but are not expected to do so this year.

  • FX Update: NY Outlook Posted:19/12/2008 12:12 by NeedToKnowNews

    Another volatile London session saw the dollar add to its recent gains versus the European majors, as EUR/USD slid under 1.4000, down from the 1.4720 peak posted on Thursday, while cable dipped under the 1.5000 mark yet again. The ECB's move to cut deposit rates yesterday was likely a factor behind the euro's slide, though the dramatic gains seen earlier in the week were more than likely overdone, as thin liquidity exaggerated the rally. USD/JPY meanwhile, moved back under 89.00 following the already priced in BoJ policy moves, and overall, the yen maintained a stronger footing, as risk trades come unwound into the end of the year. For the Friday session, the US economic calendar is empty, which could move the focus to equity markets, and any news on US automaker bailouts, where a bridge loan deal is reportedly near for GM and Chrysler.

  • Fixed Income: European Midday Posted:19/12/2008 11:48 by NeedToKnowNews

    European debt futures have lost initial gains and are lower on the session, with Bund futures continuing to outperform. European stock markets have extended earlier losses. The March 10-year Bund future is down 4 ticks at 124.49, while the corresponding Gilt future is down 11 ticks at 121.93. In the cash market the 10-year Bund yield is up 1 at 2.97% and the Gilt yield is flat at 3.19%. By comparison stock markets are lower with the DAX down 2.16% and the FTSE100 down 2.62% on the day as of 10.35GMT. The local calendar had German November PPI fell more sharply than expected, down 1.5% m/m and rose 5.3% y/y (median 6.0%), down from 7.8% y/y in October. In France, the December business confidence fell to a fresh historic low of 73 (median 77), the weakest since the survey began in 1976 and down from 79 in November (revised down from 80). Italian October industrial orders slumped 5.4% m/m, following a 2.5% m/m dip in September (revised down from -1.5%). UK GfK December consumer confidence unexpectedly rose for a second consecutive month to -33 (Reuters median -39) from -35 in November.

  • FX Update: European Midday Posted:19/12/2008 11:37 by NeedToKnowNews

    The dollar maintained a firmer tone during the European morning. Thin trading conditions exacerbated price action and there were very few prices trading on EUR/USD's move lower, which eventually resulted in a 1.3987 low, although there was interest in either direction before prices broke back below this psychological level. Cable traded in tandem with EUR/USD and hit 1.4948 lows, before EUR/GBP heaviness added a modicum of support. The cross retraced some of its recent gains to hit 0.9330 lows on broad based euro weakness. Elsewhere, JPY traded on a firmer footing against EUR, GBP, AUD and CHF, while USD/JPY was relatively stable as the dollar benefited on position adjustment and safe haven trading. USD/CHF extended its recovery to 1.1021, while the CHF crosses were steady, with EUR/CHF around 1.5400 and GBP/CHF traded ahead of 1.6450 versus overnight lows of 1.6200.

  • German Govt: Yet to Decide Size of Second Econ Stimulus Package Posted:19/12/2008 11:21 by NeedToKnowNews

    According to press reports, a second package could be worth EUR 40bln.

  • German State, National Dec CPI Schedule Posted:19/12/2008 11:15 by NeedToKnowNews

    The statistics offices in the six German states that release CPI data prior to the announcement of the national inflation rate said they plan to provide the information on the following dates and times, which are subject to change: *Saxony: Dec 29, sometime in the morning *Hesse and Brandenburg: Dec 30, 0900 GMT *Bavaria and Baden-Wuerttemberg: Dec 30, 1100 GMT *North-Rhine Westphalia: Dec 30, no time given According to this information, German national CPI can be expected December 30 after the last state has reported.

  • Copper Falls to 4 Yr Low, Nickel Firms Posted:19/12/2008 11:11 by NeedToKnowNews

    Three month copper on the LME fell at one stage to $2,860 per tonne, before recovering slightly to $2,888. Nickel, on the other hand, rose 5% with the three month contract quoted at $10,3450 a tonne. Copper has fallen around 65% since its high in July of $8,940

  • Preview: German Nov Import Prices Seen at -2.7% m-o-m Posted:19/12/2008 11:05 by NeedToKnowNews

    German November import prices are forecast down 2.7% m/m vs. the record 3.6% decline in October. The annual growth rate of import prices is expected to be a mere 0.3% following a 2.9% rise the month earlier and the 7.6% surge in September. The data will be reported at 0700 GMT Monday and broadcast live on Need to Know News’ Scream Audio. October Import prices excluding oil were down 0.2% m/m following September’s revised 0.4% increase, and rose 4.1% y-o-y vs after a revised 4.7% climb. Export prices tumbled 0.7% m-o-m after falling a revised 0.1% in September. Prices for exports were up 2% y/y after climbing a revised 2.8% in the previous month.

  • Chinese CB Sees 2009 GDP At Or Above 8% Posted:19/12/2008 11:00 by NeedToKnowNews

    The bank also forecast that industrial production would return to "normal" in the second quarter of next year.

  • Japan Govt Says CB's Readiness to Buy CP Helpful Posted:19/12/2008 10:44 by NeedToKnowNews

    Economics minister Yosano said the purchases would greatly help corporate financing until next year.

  • Fixed Income: European Bonds Turn South Posted:19/12/2008 10:09 by NeedToKnowNews

    European debt futures have lost earlier gains and are lower on the session, with Bund futures continue to outperform. Eurozone data this morning has surprised on the downside, with German PPI falling more sharply than expected, French business confidence hitting a new series low and Italian industrial orders plunging. Meanwhile, European stock markets remain in the red. The March 10-year Bund future is down 3 ticks at 124.50, while the corresponding Gilt future is down 22 ticks at 121.82. The 10-year Bund cash yield is up 1 bp at 2.97% and the 10-year UK yield is up 1 bp at 3.20%. Meanwhile, DAX is down 0.72% and FTSE is down 1.20% as of 09.02GMT.

  • FX Update: Euro Weak vs Dollar Posted:19/12/2008 10:08 by NeedToKnowNews

    EUR/USD's collapse continued in thin trade, with the bottom falling out after 1.4200 and 1.4150 gave way. Losses extended to 1.4053 on very modest flows and wafer thin liquidity. There were very few prices trading on the two big figure fall from around 1.4250, where prices settled in early European trade. The USD, GBP and JPY benefited the most on the fall out, which could target further downside levels as the correction from yesterday's highs is distorted on the way down. EUR/USD shorts could challenge 1.4000, with this level a temptation for speculative accounts in thin conditions. Sentiment turned sharply since yesterday's New York morning session, with dollar buying momentum picking up as safe haven trades are favoured in to the Xmas holiday. The ECB also followed up with a cut in its depo rate to encourage money market normalcy, while ECB Trichet reiterated his comments on a US strong dollar policy and France's Lagarde warned that FX volatility was a problem for exporters.

  • German Upper House Approves 2009 Budget for EUR 18.5bln of Borrowing Posted:19/12/2008 9:57 by NeedToKnowNews

    This year's borrowing is expected at EUR 11.9bln.

  • FX Update: Sterling Choppy Posted:19/12/2008 9:54 by NeedToKnowNews

    GBP experienced further volatility in thin European trade. EUR/GBP made an early European move higher to 0.9475, but was unable to rechallenge the 0.9500 level and headed lower under the weight of broad euro selling. Cable whipped around in an 80 pip range after making an early challenge of 1.5000. EUR/GBP's move higher forced through stops below 1.5050 and the pair settled at 1.5015 lows before rallying back towards 1.5100. Further gains were capped, with the dollar in the ascendency as safe haven trading favoured dollar upward momentum in to the weekend. Cable was weighed a touch by vague talk that UK banks could be downgraded, but generally cross currents and short term order flows influenced in the absence of key economic data. Cable is at risk of breaking 1.5000, but could find support on EUR/GBP's correction, which extended below 0.9400.

  • Merrill Lynch: European Banks' Earnings to Fall in 2010 vs 2009 Posted:19/12/2008 9:16 by NeedToKnowNews

    The US investment bank said rising provisions account for its expectation that earnings will fall increasingly over the coming two years. It has downgraded its earnings forecast for European banks by 15% for next year and 25% for 2010, taking a more cautious view on their asset quality and growth in lending.

  • FX Update: CHF Consolidates Posted:19/12/2008 9:14 by NeedToKnowNews

    CHF consolidated after Thursday's price swings, leaving USD/CHF settled close to 1.0800 after experiencing an Asian range of 1.0745-1.0850. Meanwhile, EUR/CHF is supported around the 1.5400 level after rallying out of 1.5356 lows in Asia, which compared with Thursday's 1.5290 base. Thursday's bid for CHF came at the expense of the dollar and then the euro, but prices have returned to more orderly trading conditions, which has allowed some of the liquidity driven gains to come undone. Overall, the market is broadly in favour of low risk positions ahead of the weekend, which benefits the USD, JPY and the CHF to a lesser degree. EUR/CHF remains capped at 1.5460 and is skewed to further downside tests after yesterday's bearish technical breakout. A retest of 1.5295 is seen in the near-term and a break below would open up the downside to the 50-day moving average at 1.5225.

  • Euro Stock Indices Drifting Posted:19/12/2008 8:54 by NeedToKnowNews

    Footsie -1.04%, DAX 1.47% weaker, Eurofirst 1.5% lower, CAC 1.49% easier

  • Fixed Income: Bunds Up; Gilts Flat; Equities Down Posted:19/12/2008 8:47 by NeedToKnowNews

    Bund debt futures are higher in early morning trade, while Gilts opened little changed and stock markets have declined. The domestic agenda is light today, with this morning's German November PPI data showing a larger fall than expected, with the headline reading slipping to 5.3% y/y (median 6.0%) from 7.8%. The March 10-year Bund future is up 23 ticks at 124.76, while the corresponding Gilt future is up 2 ticks at 122.06. The 10-year Bund cash yield is down 3 bp at 2.94% and the 10-year UK yield is down 1 bp at 3.17%. Meanwhile, DAX opened down 1.1%, while FTSE 100 opened down 1.2%.

  • FX Update: European Outlook Posted:19/12/2008 8:36 by NeedToKnowNews

    The USD's recent correction phase looks to be over with the actions of the ECB (slashing depo rates) and BoJ (cutting base rates to 0.1%) reminding markets that rate differentials alone are note likely to be a lasting influence in undermining the US currency. Also, recent evident headwinds in stock markets and consensus view that the worst of the recession lies ahead has rekindled risk aversion, offsetting the recent phase of equity value buying. New record yield lows in the US 10-year note yield on each of the last three consecutive trading days reflects this. Our EUR/USD technical page anticipates further corrective potential, currently targets 1.3900. Meanwhile, commodity currencies, such as the AUD, NZD and CAD should be pressured in this environment. Oil prices traded near $37, which makes it about a 75% decline since the peak of mid-2007.

  • BOJ Gov: Cannot Say if More Rate Cuts to Come Posted:19/12/2008 8:23 by NeedToKnowNews

    The BOJ this morning cut its benchmark rate 20bps to 0.1%, and voted to buy up commercial bonds. Shirokawa, the Bank's governor, said BOJ operations are not aimed at lowering long-term rates.

  • Looking Ahead: NY's Morning Headlines Posted:19/12/2008 8:15 by NeedToKnowNews

    Car Bankruptcy Cited as Option by White House NYT http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/19/business/19auto.html?_r=1&ref=todayspaper Bank of Japan Cuts Key Policy Rate to 0.1% FT http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6acbcbbc-cd8a-11dd-8b30-000077b07658.html Stocks Fall In Mixed Volume As Big Drop In Crude Prices Triggers Energy Sell-Off IBD http://license.icopyright.net/user/viewFreeUse.act?fuid=MjIzNTQwMw== Oracle Meets Views As Sales Fall Short, But Q3 Looks Solid IBD http://license.icopyright.net/user/viewFreeUse.act?fuid=MjIzNTQwNw==

  • In the Markets Posted:19/12/2008 7:57 by NeedToKnowNews

    * U.S. calendar quiet today, focus on Fed's quantitative measures * Canadian calendar has Nov CPI, seen slowing to 1.3% y/y (median 1.8%), core to 1.5% * BoJ cut overnight call rate to 0.1%, as expected * ECB Trichet: Cut in depo rate should encourage money market to function normally * U.K. Dec GfK consumer confidence rose 2 points to -33, versus the -39 expected * U.S. Treasury yields little changed Fri; global rates lower on ECB, BoJ moves * EUR-USD has consolidated after wide swings Thursday * NYMEX crude remains under $37; gold and base metals down; copper at 5-yr low * Asian stock markets mixed; Nikkei weighed down by auto sector * Japan's Cabinet Office forecast -0.8% FY2008 growth, then flat through 2010 * Japan Oct all-industry index declined 0.5% m/m SA, extending recent downtrend * NZ Nov credit card billings fell 0.7% S.A. on year, from +1.4% in October * S&P lowered outlook on GE, said 1-in-3 risk of downgrade from AAA in 2-years * Fed's Fisher: consumption cascading downhill, Fed not shy of using every means * Obama financial team picks accelerated due to crisis: Shapiro, Gensler, Tarullo

  • European Markets Outlook Posted:19/12/2008 7:56 by NeedToKnowNews

    US shares tanked Thursday as energy stocks followed oil lower. The Dow lost 2.5%. The S&P was off 2.1%. The Nasdaq fell 1.7%. General Electric dropped 8.2% after Standard & Poors' suggested it might lower the company's rating from "AAA." Asian shares were mixed after the BOJ cut its main interest rate by 20bps to 0.1% and announced plans to increase its purchasing of government bonds. The Nikkei fell 0.9%. The Hang Seng was off 1.6%. The ASX rose 0.7%. European markets were called lower. The FTSE was seen down 21 points, the DAX off 40 and the CAC 47 lower. The DAX future fell 1.3%. The CAC future was off 1.5%. The European economic calendar is light today. German producer prices fell 1.5% m/m in November, which was in line with estimates. The yen was mixed following the BOJ rate cut. EUR/JPY was off 0.2%. USD/JPY fell 0.5%. GBP/JPY was up 0.4%. EUR/USD rose 0.3%. Cable gained 0.8%. Bonds were uneven in early European trade. The 10yr Bund future rose 11 ticks to 124.63. The 10yr Bund yield was flat at 2.97%. The 2yr Schatz fell 6bps to 1.87%. The 10yr Gilt was flat at 3.18%. The 2yr rose 1bp to 1.29%. The 10yr JGB fell 5bps after the BOJ said it would increase its buying of such bonds. The 10yr T-note rose 2bps to 2.08%. Oil rebounded after WTI slid below $37/bbl overnight. WT rose 1.9%. to $42.45. Brent was up 1% to $43.81.

  • Panasonic to Buy Sanyo; Biggest Ever Japanese Consumer Electronics Merger Posted:19/12/2008 7:52 by NeedToKnowNews

    Panasonic and Sanyo described the move as a capital and business alliance. Panasonic said it would spend at least $4.5bln to buy a majority stake in Sanyo.  The smaller firm's current shareholders include Goldman Sachs, which has already agreed to sell up to Panasonic. A joint news conference is due at 0830 GMT.



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